osx lion - Have a script execute a command randomly every now and then

I have a script which I am scheduling to run daily with Cron. However I want a certain section of the script to only run randomly occasionally, with a certain probability of executing on any given day.

Here's my basic idea.

use $RANDOM and cut to get a single random digit:

echo $RANDOM | cut -c1

use an if/then test to evaluate this digit and execute only when it matches a certain value:

if [(echo $RANDOM | cut -c1) = 3]; then
echo "YES" >> ~/result.txt
fi

However, this is not working. The script fails with the following:

./testscript: line 3: syntax error near unexpected token `echo'
./testscript: line 3: `if [(echo $RANDOM | cut -c1) = 3]; then'

I think the idea is sound, but I'm guessing I'm getting the syntax wrong.

Any ideas?

Using bash on Mac OSX 10.7.2

Possibly interesting sidenote: I ran echo $RANDOM | cut -c1 100,000 times and then worked out the frequency with which each digit appears, so using this I can adjust the frequency with which the script executes by selecting the appropriate values. Interestingly the distribution of digits at first glance seems to obey Benford's Law...

use

if [ "$(echo $RANDOM | cut -c1)" = 3 ]; then
    echo "YES" >> ~/result.txt
fi

or even

[ "${RANDOM:0:1}" = 3 ] && echo "YES" >> ~/result.txt

It's nicer to test if $RANDOM is smaller than a given number. If you chose 10000,

if [ $RANDOM -le 10000 ]; then
    echo "YES" >> ~/result.txt 
fi 

Will do the trick. Of course you can pick a different number. ("-le" means less-than-or-equals).